Late in the third quarter of Monday night’s game, the Seattle Seahawks made an interesting decision.
After Kenneth Walker III finished off an 80-yard drive with a 1-yard TD run to pull the Seahawks within 28-20, head coach Mike McDonald elected to go for the two-point conversion rather than kick the extra point.
Ultimately, the decision resulted in zero points. But it also didn’t change the fact that Seattle was down one score. Although, a conversion wouldn’t have changed the fact that it was a one-score game either.
So, why did Seattle elect for a two-point try in that situation? Macdonald explained how the analytics favored the decision to go for two during his weekly conversation with Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk on Tuesday.
“Without going through all the numbers, (the situation) does favor going for two,” Macdonald said. “Just play it out, at some point (if) you get two opportunities to get a two-point conversion, (it) about evens out (that you will at least convert one). If you get the first one, now you just need the touchdown (and extra point), and that’s a path to win the game in (regulation). … If you only (convert) one, now you’re looking at going to overtime, and now you’re still at a 50-50 proposition about winning the game.”
The league-average conversion rate for a two-point try was about 48% from 2015-22, according to a report from ESPN.
Macdonald went with the analytics this time, but said that won’t always be the case.
“Our philosophy is really game to game,” he said. “So, going into the game, we’re not hard set either way. But just the way the game was going and, frankly, how our defense was playing—I felt like our offense was moving the ball pretty good – I just felt like, ‘Hey, if we had a chance to win this thing in regulation, let’s do it.’”
No challenge on failed two-point try
The Seahawks were unable to convert the two-point try after Walker’s touchdown, despite getting two attempts at the play. But it came with some controversy.
The initial attempt was a pass from quarterback Geno Smith to DK Metcalf that was ruled incomplete, but Detroit was called for defensive pass interference, which gave Seattle the ball at the 1-yard line with another chance to get the conversion.
However, it appeared as if Metcalf may have actually caught the initial attempt. But McDonald’s didn’t challenge the play, and the replay official in the booth didn’t ask for a review.
“What was going through my mind was we didn’t have a clear look at it from up top, and they were reviewing it in the booth,” Macdonald said. “In hindsight, you force the issue a little more, I guess.”
The second attempt resulted in an incompletion as Smith tried to connect with Jake Bobo on a back-shoulder fade.