Ahead of Michigan’s season opener on Saturday, quarterback Alex Orji profiles as one of the biggest X-factors of the entire college football season.

The Wolverines have yet to name a starting QB ahead of their 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff against Fresno State, and coach Sherrone Moore said earlier this week the QB race is down to two players: Orji and senior Davis Warren.

It’s presumed that Orji – the only quarterback to take meaningful snaps last year behind starter J.J. McCarthy – will ultimately get the nod and lead the defending champions in 2024.

If that’s the case, what can Michigan fans expect from Orji? And does he have the skill set to help the Wolverines live up to their betting odds this season?

Can Michigan trust Orji under center?

It’s tough to follow a top-10 pick who led his team to its first national title in 26 years. But Orji has the physical tools to chart his own path in Ann Arbor.

Standing at 6-3 and 235 pounds, Orji ranked 13th in Bruce Feldman’s annual “Freaks List” because of his elite speed and lower-body strength – drawing comparisons to former college stars Cam Newton and Tim Tebow.

Earlier this year, Michigan cornerback Will Johnson compared Orji to Alabama star Jalen Milroe, who enters this season among the favorites across Michigan betting sites to win the Heisman Trophy. The star corner said his junior teammate is “even more of a physical freak” than Milroe with a similarly strong arm and more imposing running style.

That could be just what the doctor ordered for the run-happy Wolverines, who feature a star rusher in Donovan Edwards behind a rebuilt offensive line.

One of McCarthy’s best traits in this offense was his ability to buy time in the pocket and escape pressure on third down. That shouldn’t be an issue for Orji if he takes the reins.

What about Orji’s arm?

For all of Orji’s physical gifts, we haven’t really seen them on display as a passer.

The junior has attempted just one pass in three seasons at Michigan – a five-yard completion – alongside his 21 rushes for 123 yards and three touchdowns.

The former three-star prospect was viewed as a developmental QB coming out of Sachse High School, where he completed just 51.4% of his passes as a senior.

He missed some easy throws in Michigan’s spring game in April, when he finished 13-of-18 with a long of 12 yards, and he’s shown some inconsistency in fall camp as he tries to separate from the competition.

Still, Orji has shown enough flashes with his arm to remain the presumed front-runner in this race.

There’s a reason Moore and his staff didn’t pursue a transfer QB this offseason – but there’s also a reason Warren, a former walk-on, is still firmly in this race after he was a standout in the spring game.

How to bet Michigan with Orji at QB

Assuming Orji gets the nod under center, either ahead of Week 1 or after, what does that mean for Michigan football odds to repeat in 2024?

First, let’s make one thing very clear: McCarthy isn’t walking through that door. The Wolverines’ offense will have to evolve this season, if only because of the overhauled offensive line and slightly different philosophy with Moore and offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell calling all the shots.

The bigger question in my mind isn’t whether Orji can lead Michigan to a title. It’s whether his supporting cast can carry the load and let their inexperienced passer grow into the role.

I think that’s well within reach for the Wolverines, who boast five of the best defensive players in college football with a stout run game on paper.

Michigan also welcomes Oregon and Texas to the Big House – one of the best home venues by our Big Ten stadium rankings – and ducks Penn State this season, leaving open a clear path to nine (or more) wins after last year’s 15-0 run.

Alex Orji Heisman odds

If you’re feeling especially zealous, there’s absolutely a path to Orji winning the 2024 Heisman Trophy in his first season as a starter.

we’ve seen dual-threat stars take home this award time and time again, especially those walking into a ready-made situation for a potential contender.

It wouldn’t take a tremendous level of passing volume to get there: LSU’s Jayden Daniels won the Heisman last year with just 327 attempts, even fewer than McCarthy (332) had in a 10th-place finish.

Orji surely won’t be as efficient as his predecessor, but his elite rushing ability makes him an exceptionally compelling long shot across top Michigan sportsbooks.

He’s currently dealing as high as +10000 via DraftKings Sportsbook to win college football’s most coveted award, which last went to a Wolverine when Charles Woodson won it in 1997.

Those 100/1 odds imply a mere 0.99% probability that Orji could win it this year. It’s a long shot for a reason, but if all goes exceedingly well, Orji could be the defining player of the college football season.